Markets rise and fall, but your financial plan shouldn’t
When floods cause damage, people tend to blame the storm. The rain was heavy, the river rose too fast, and the water was unstoppable. No amount of sandbags could staunch the flow.
But engineers ask the real question: was the levee maintained properly? I discussed this idea in a recent episode of WiSE Words, “The Levee vs The Flood.”
Picture two towns along the same river. A storm rolls in and brings record-level rainfall and messy weather. Both communities watch as the river rises and pressure builds.
When the dark clouds finally part and the sun shines again, one town emerges largely unscathed, while the other scrambles to address widespread damage in the aftermath, including flooded properties, washed out roads, and submerged vehicles.
The difference usually isn’t the storm. It’s the strength of the structure that’s supposed to hold the water back.
The first town has reinforced levees that are inspected regularly. They routinely patch small cracks to ensure the foundation is stable enough to withstand eventual storms. The second town assumed everything looked fine on the surface and postponed maintenance. But when the river rises, the outcome for each town is very different.
Financial markets work much the same way. Risk in retirement isn’t just about volatility. Just like the levee, unmaintained financial structures can put pre-retirees and retirees at risk.
Many pre-retirees tell me they’re worried about the next crash. They scan daily headlines, bracing for the next surge of volatility in the TSX or the S&P 500. But markets rise and fall, and they always have.
Is your financial levee strong enough to absorb the shock when a storm rolls in?
During the accumulation years, many investors focus on growth. But in retirement, the equation changes. You’re no longer building wealth, you’re drawing from it. That shift changes everything.
Sequence risk, tax drag, asset mix, concentration risk, insurance gaps, estate fragility… these concerns move from background considerations to critical decisions that determine whether your financial levee holds when pressure builds.
Here are a few situations I’ve seen that can surface when a plan hasn't been reviewed in a while.
Consider a retiree who has built a strong portfolio, but hasn’t coordinated RRSP withdrawals with CPP and OAS. When mandatory RRIF withdrawals begin, the additional income can spike taxes and put them into the OAS clawback zone. Nothing shifted in the market. The issue was structural planning that hadn’t been updated.
It’s not uncommon to see people approaching retirement with a large portion of their wealth concentrated in a single sector that had performed well for years. When the market eventually shifts, the portfolio is at risk of absorbing far more pressure than necessary, because diversification hadn’t been addressed.
Another example: a family had carefully accumulated assets for decades, but left gaps in their estate planning. Without proper coordination between investments, tax planning, and legal structures, the eventual transfer of wealth to the next generation was far less efficient than it could have been.
In each case, the challenge wasn’t the storm. It was the maintenance. The best time to review financial structures is during calm markets. When everything feels stable, and the river is smooth as glass. Inspect the foundations. Make sure it can hold up under pressure.
For example, are RRSP withdrawals coordinated with CPP and OAS to minimize tax? Are TFSAs positioned strategically for tax-free flexibility? Is your asset mix designed for both income and durability? Are debt levels appropriate as income changes? And finally, are insurance and estate plans aligned with your investment strategy?
When markets surge and retreat, a well-maintained plan can absorb pressures without forcing reactive decisions.
Floods are normal. It’s when maintenance is skipped that real damage can happen. Rather than hoping the river stays low, we focus on what we can control: strengthening the walls and protecting what you’ve built.
Storms will come. A sound structure will let you sit at the riverside and watch the water rise without fear.